Published March 2012

Analysis of world oil-gas potential, development and perspectives and Azerbaijan activity in this direction

G.N. Gahramanov

Keywords:  
total of initial reserves
possible reserves
discovered reserves
remaining reserves
reserves increasing
logistical curve
decline rate
peak years
continental shelf
giant fields.

The dynamics of main indexes of the leading countries in hydrocarbon reserves and development during last 20-25 years is provided. Currently, the world total primary oil reserves are forecasted as 550 bln. tons. 34-35% of these resources are in the Middle East, 14-15% in Russia and 10% in USA, Canada and Mexico. World gas reserves are 570 trl. m3. During the above-mentioned period for all gas-producing countries in the world recoverable reserves increase annually for 2-3%, resulting in 50 trln. m3. Significant changes in gas reserves of Azerbaijan have taken place (1.0 trln. m3). From the 70,000 oil and gas fields discovered over the entire period of geological and exploration practice 940 are giants (1.34%), 555 oil and 385 gas and gas-condensate. Initial explore reserves in giant oil fields compose 43 % and in gas fields 56 %. By 01.01.2011 oil production in the world reached 220 bln. tons. In USA cumulative production is over 50 bln. tons or 24% of the world production, and in Russia - 20.5 mln. tons, or 10%. In Azerbaijan this index from the beginning of commercial production is 1.7 bln. tons or 0.8% of the world production content. Despite the steady increase of world oil and gas production it did not reach to the maximum index. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts peak in oil production in 2025-2030 years. In recent years a lot of fields with huge reserves of hydrocarbons are related to the continental shelf of world oceans. Evidence of this is the discovering of the giant fields in Mexico and the Persian Gulf, in North Sea and the South Caspian basin. In 2010 from the produced all over the world 4 billion 568 mln. tons of oil 1.0 bln. tons or 22 % falls on shelves. The foregoing shows that in the next 35-40 years in the global industry the energy and transport sectors further increase will be observed.

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