Published January 2014
The possibility of implementation of econometric methods in oil production
G.A.SafarovThe article is devoted to modeling and forecasting of the oil production of a field. For forecasting of production of the fields being in long operation, various methods which mainly are based on determination of production decline rate are applied. In offered article the problem of forecasting of annual oil production of a field was considered by econometric methods. The econometric methods are widely used in various areas at the solution of economic tasks. Econometric models differ from other mathematical and economic models of justification of methods and criteria of mathematical statistics. The main condition for creating a model is the randomness of the considered parameters. The article investigated the possibility of modeling and production forecasting of the oil production, on basis of data of Neft Dashlari field by econometric methods. At creation of econometric model of production from a considered field passing of some stages and carrying out certain calculation is required. The reliability and adequacy of the model was proved via relevant research by econometric methods. Thus, as a result it was determined that the error between the actual and calculated values is within acceptable limits. Results of these researches confirm the possibility of successful application of econometric methods in solving problems of oil production.
